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Trading firm QCP Capital does not expect the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a spot Bitcoin ( BTC) ETF until 2024.
In a recent post on Telegram, the company said the anticipation surrounding the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs is reaching a fever pitch.
“There has been a flurry of activity across numerous venues as participants continue to bet on the spot BTC ETF approval, as well as fear of missing out (FOMO) starting to kick in,” it said.
QCP added that recent developments indicate that institutions are serious about diving into the market, with BTC futures open interest on CME surpassing that of Binance, a clear sign of institutional involvement.
Likewise, perp funding rates remain elevated, and term forwards and risk reversals have steadily climbed throughout the week, which suggests a growing belief in the potential approval of a spot BTC ETF.
However, the firm expects this approval to be delayed until January 2024.
Spot ETH ETF Narrative Could Drive Markets
QCP said that despite the Bitcoin ETF setback, a new narrative surrounding a spot Ethereum ( ETH) ETF may emerge, offering enough momentum for crypto prices to continue their upward grind towards the end of the year.
“A new narrative surrounding a spot ETH ETF should be enough fuel for animal spirits to take hold once again with crypto prices steadily grinding higher towards the end of the year.”
The trading firm noted that supportive macroeconomic factors have also contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding risk assets.
While US job data has consistently pointed to a robust economy, recent soft data has painted a different picture.
Notably, the November non-farm payroll (NFP) figure not only fell short of expectations but also came in below consensus.
In the short term, the overall macro outlook appears slightly rosier as expectations of a pause in interest rate hikes solidify.
This positive backdrop is expected to provide support for crypto prices, with any market dips promptly attracting FOMO-driven traders eager to jump on board the crypto train.
“However, caution is still warranted as we are at crucial resistance levels, and BTC is printing a triple bear divergence with the RSI which has been a reliable signal for momentum stalling,” QCP said.
The optimism around the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF has fueled the recent rally in crypto markets, which saw the flagship cryptocurrency reach as high as $38,000.
Meanwhile, analysts at financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald believe the long-awaited spot BTC ETF is inching closer to reality.
The SEC has been hesitant to approve a spot bitcoin ETF due to concerns about potential manipulation on offshore spot platforms.
However, Cantor Fitzgerald believes that the market surveillance procedures proposed by new applicants could address these worries and sway the SEC towards approval.
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